NWS blows it again?

[altivo]

For three days they've been warning us of the terrible snowstorm that was going to hit Wednesday night, increasing the accumulation of snow, issuing dire warnings about travel difficulties.

Yesterday morning they upped the ante again, to as much as seven inches of accumulation. I went and looked at the radar screens: nothing. As far as the thing could reach and two zones west, nothing. When I went to bed last night, the warnings were still flashing, as they are even now. You could see something on the radar, but it is the type of "storm" where often nothing reaches the ground. It all evaporates in the upper atmosphere.

As of dawn, to read the actual stuff coming out of NWS, we are in the midst of a blizzard. But if you look out the window, there is not a single flake. In fact, it has been so clear all night that the full moon was distracting, shining through the bedroom curtains. The temperature is above freezing, the wind is calm, there is simply nothing of note going on. When are they going to learn to look out the window instead of relying on defective computer modeling?

[Edit 9:30 am: It is now flurrying. From the radar and what I see outside, I still simply cannot believe the forecast. They have upped the expected accumulation to 8 inches, with an accumulation rate of as much as 2 inches per hour. Areas under the most intense part of the storm on radar are reporting snow flurries or light rain. At the moment the temperature is still above freezing and snow is melting when it hits the ground.]

[Edit 8:15 pm: As I suspected, this "terrible" storm was another dud. Instead of 8 inches of snow we got well under 2 inches, most of which melted as it fell. Ground cover ranges from none to about an inch of wet snow. The temperature never really dropped much below freezing all day. There was a lot of wind, but the precipitation was minimal. NWS clung to its prediction of 5 to 8 inches until it was perfectly obvious that nothing of the sort was going to happen. About the time that the snow stopped completely at sunset, they revised the evening forecast upwards from a possible additional half inch to 1 to 3 inches accumulation, but the storm was gone by. Whoever the idiots are who write those forecasts, it's time to get rid of them. My dog could do better.]

Comments

[zenicurean.livejournal.com]

Obviously it was a particularly polite, well-mannered blizzard which simply didn't want to cause a ruckus while storming by.

[niko-winterset.livejournal.com]

Something vaguely similar went on here this morning. The local news radar was showing our area with scattered showers but there was nothing out there. It was cloudy though.

Maybe the NWS needs a few of those weather forecasting rocks you hang outside your windwow. Remember those?

Storm

[wolfgrowl.livejournal.com]

I have to head up to Toronto from my home in the Caribbean for a few days tomorrow. That's a pretty good indicator that it might snow.

[corelog.livejournal.com]

Right about the time I hit the word "snowstorm," I figured out that NWS didn't mean "Not Work Safe." :D

[altivo.livejournal.com]

Yes, I remember those. If it made them look outside once in a while, they might even help.

[altivo.livejournal.com]

Might well be snow by the time this gets to Toronto, if it does.

[altivo.livejournal.com]

Heh. I always use NSFW for that. NWS == National Weather Service, though in the last few years I've been thinking they should be called the National Wishful-Thinking Service instead. Perhaps it's one of those Bush administration science things.

GWB: I want all this reporting of drought and flood and excessive temperatures to stop. Make the forecasts happy.

NWS: But your majesty, there really is a drought in the midwest, and higher than normal temperatures everywhere. It's global warming.

GWB: There is no such thing as global warming. God told me so. And you'll lose your funding if I hear you say one more word about it. Now go make those forecasts happier.

NWS: Yes, your majesty. But people will notice that the forecasts are wrong.

GWB: Just say that it's the terrorists, and the loyal forces of Homeland Security are working on it.

[altivo.livejournal.com]

Well, it's flurrying a bit now. We need moisture so badly that the snow would be welcome, as far as I'm concerned. But I still think this forecast is totally screwed up.

[songcoyote.livejournal.com]

Ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow owwwww!

You should get metaquoted for that one!

Permission to cross-post?

Light and laughter,
SongCoyote

[altivo.livejournal.com]

Sure, go ahead. ;)

[songdogmi.livejournal.com]

They've backed off on the snow forecast here considerably, except on the current national maps, which are still indicating "heavy snow possible" in the far southern part of Michigan. I'm kind of at a loss.

[altivo.livejournal.com]

"Heavy snow possible" is always a safe bet for the southwestern corner of Michigan anyway. Talking about driving on I-94 we used to say "Now from Benton Harbor to PawPaw it will be snowing." "But it's August!" "No matter, from Benton Harbor to PawPaw it is always snowing."

[derechodragon.livejournal.com]

Looking at this animated radar (http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DVN&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999) I can see their concern -- the pattern is just right for major accumulation in the warned area. The only problem seems to be the amount of moisture available, so the snowfall is lighter than expected. And remember, a half-inch of rain is about 5 inches of snow

[altivo.livejournal.com]

Yes, that's exactly my conclusion. Not enough moisture by far. I know that a half or three quarters of an inch of rain could make the amount of accumulation they predict if it were snow, but it just seems highly unlikely when you look at what's happening out here on the ground.

Things have been so dry here for over a year that often storms appear on radar but no moisture at all reaches the ground level. It all evaporates.

[derechodragon.livejournal.com]

I'm not making any predictions of my own, but "it ain't over 'till it's over". In addition, being so close to the freezing line adds more complications. I think this is a good example of CYA Policy.

[dakhun.livejournal.com]

LOL!
Our problem here is that Environment Canada (which no longer has an office in this province :-P) consistently under-reports the severity of current conditions during snow storms here. If you look at their records, I think you will find that there hasn't been a single blizzard here for several years, yet there have been many snow storms recently that anyone in their right mind would call a blizzard. For some reason, the storms here never seem to fit the requirements for barometric pressure or some other criterion that doesn't really matter unless you are looking at instruments instead of noticing the fact that you are caught in a blizzard that's being reported as "light snow".

[altivo.livejournal.com]

Continued light snow here now, mostly melting as fast as it hits. We are now into the period where they were predicting accumulations of 2 inches per hour.

Yes, I think you're entirely correct. The problem with all this CYA stuff is, as I've pointed out before, when they cry wolf so many times and there is no wolf, people are going to more and more often ignore the warnings.

[altivo.livejournal.com]

The opposite of our problem. Here I swear they deliberately exaggerate the forecast in order to create sensationalist stories for the media.