Just how long is that tail?
Aug. 9th, 2005 11:45 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
altivoChris Anderson of Wired Magazine posited a theory he calls "the long tail" that is supposed to justify expending effort on publishing and producing materials that fall outside the 20 percent that account for 80 percent of commercial revenues. The idea is that eventually, something that makes a huge splash (like Dan Brown's The Da Vinci Code) will create markets for material that had previously been obscure and attracted little interest (books about the Templars, mysticism, medieval history, etc.) You can read the original article here in HTML or here in PDF format.
I think there is validity to at least a part of Anderson's theory. He says that the internet has made it possible for consumers of text media, music, or other entertainment to find others of like mind and therefore other materials that suit their interests with much greater ease than ever before. He gives examples that show how reader recommendations at Amazon.com have pushed books into the spotlight years after they were originally released and forgotten.
His focus seems very commercial, though. It is aimed at profit makers and suggests that a revolution is in the works that will change their decision making in radical ways. I think he has missed something, at least in the United States. During the Reagan era, commercial tax codes were significantly changed in such a way as to make backlist inventories very costly to maintain. Consequently, publishers began dumping and remaindering books a few months after publication if they didn't "blossom" on the market and hit the bestseller list. When the long tail phenomenon strikes, if it does, several years later, the related materials are out of print and hard to get.
Anderson thinks the answer to this is digital media. He uses music as an example, and suggests that by selling downloads of less popular items, the industry can justify making them available. The cost of the inventory is smaller, it isn't taxed because it is not physical merchandise, and the profit margin of even a few sales is much higher. That may be true, but with the captains of the industry doing their best to tie downloaded music up in draconian digital rights management issues that keep it from being as portable and sharable as a CD or tape cassette is, I don't see it becoming genuinely practical.
Print publishing is even farther behind because there is not as yet a standard that makes digital text anywhere near universal and portable enough, even before the digital rights people get their fingers into it. Until that revolution takes place where the big capitalists of publishing and entertainment are slammed up against the wall and deprived of their control, I don't see much change in the marketplace.
Meanwhile, the internet does indeed generate the phenomenon of the long tail in the sense that interest in obscure and older material can suddenly awaken. For example, Steven R. Boyett's 1986 novel, The Architect of Sleep, a science fictionish alternate world tale that happens to feature a society of raccoon-like anthropoids who communicate by sign language, is suddenly in great demand as furry fandom grows by leaps and bounds and the reading-oriented furries start looking for it. The book didn't sell well, dropped out of sight, and generated no sequels. It has been out of print for almost two decades. Used copies are very scarce and will quickly rise in price. Even libraries do not hold very many copies, because it was a small mass paperback and those do not hold up well in library circulation. Boyett is still around and writing, though not in that same uncommercial vein. Could he, or someone else, redeem the rights to his novel and reprint it or release a digital edition? Perhaps, but it probably won't happen. Until we can actually provide the material sought by the long tail effect, it is mostly a curious phenomenon. And present commercial and copyright structures do not make it easy for producers to respond to the effect when it hits.
Now, for those who found that all boring and irrelevant, here instead is a silly and irrelevant meme:
I think there is validity to at least a part of Anderson's theory. He says that the internet has made it possible for consumers of text media, music, or other entertainment to find others of like mind and therefore other materials that suit their interests with much greater ease than ever before. He gives examples that show how reader recommendations at Amazon.com have pushed books into the spotlight years after they were originally released and forgotten.
His focus seems very commercial, though. It is aimed at profit makers and suggests that a revolution is in the works that will change their decision making in radical ways. I think he has missed something, at least in the United States. During the Reagan era, commercial tax codes were significantly changed in such a way as to make backlist inventories very costly to maintain. Consequently, publishers began dumping and remaindering books a few months after publication if they didn't "blossom" on the market and hit the bestseller list. When the long tail phenomenon strikes, if it does, several years later, the related materials are out of print and hard to get.
Anderson thinks the answer to this is digital media. He uses music as an example, and suggests that by selling downloads of less popular items, the industry can justify making them available. The cost of the inventory is smaller, it isn't taxed because it is not physical merchandise, and the profit margin of even a few sales is much higher. That may be true, but with the captains of the industry doing their best to tie downloaded music up in draconian digital rights management issues that keep it from being as portable and sharable as a CD or tape cassette is, I don't see it becoming genuinely practical.
Print publishing is even farther behind because there is not as yet a standard that makes digital text anywhere near universal and portable enough, even before the digital rights people get their fingers into it. Until that revolution takes place where the big capitalists of publishing and entertainment are slammed up against the wall and deprived of their control, I don't see much change in the marketplace.
Meanwhile, the internet does indeed generate the phenomenon of the long tail in the sense that interest in obscure and older material can suddenly awaken. For example, Steven R. Boyett's 1986 novel, The Architect of Sleep, a science fictionish alternate world tale that happens to feature a society of raccoon-like anthropoids who communicate by sign language, is suddenly in great demand as furry fandom grows by leaps and bounds and the reading-oriented furries start looking for it. The book didn't sell well, dropped out of sight, and generated no sequels. It has been out of print for almost two decades. Used copies are very scarce and will quickly rise in price. Even libraries do not hold very many copies, because it was a small mass paperback and those do not hold up well in library circulation. Boyett is still around and writing, though not in that same uncommercial vein. Could he, or someone else, redeem the rights to his novel and reprint it or release a digital edition? Perhaps, but it probably won't happen. Until we can actually provide the material sought by the long tail effect, it is mostly a curious phenomenon. And present commercial and copyright structures do not make it easy for producers to respond to the effect when it hits.
Now, for those who found that all boring and irrelevant, here instead is a silly and irrelevant meme:
The Fool can signal a new beginning or change of direction - one that will guide you onto a path of adventure, wonder and personal growth. He also reminds you to keep your faith and trust your natural responses. If you are facing a decision or moment of doubt, the Fool tells you to believe in yourself and follow your heart no matter how crazy or foolish your impulses may seem. For a full description of your card and other goodies, please visit LearnTarot.com |
What tarot card are you? Enter your birthdate. |
I am The Fool
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no subject
Date: 2005-08-09 09:53 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-08-09 03:16 pm (UTC)The Star is most welcome when grief and despair have overwhelmed us. In our darkest moments, we need to know that there is hope,that there is light at the end of the tunnel. The Star is the opposite of the Devil who strips us of our faith in the future. Card 17 holds out the promise that we can eventually find peace of mind. The Star also reminds us to open our heart and release our fears and doubt. If you have been holding back in any way, now is the time to give generously.
For a full description of your card and other goodies, please visit LearnTarot.com
What tarot card are you? Enter your birthdate.
no subject
Date: 2005-08-11 12:41 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-08-11 01:32 pm (UTC)Unfortunately, there are a lot of recent ones that we can't legally touch, which is a shame.