Weather again

[altivo]

It snowed again today. Only a half inch or so accumulation because it was warm enough to melt a lot of it. But I was amused by the weather service. They were reporting that it was snowing, AND that there was a 30% chance of snow. Huh? Nobody home, I guess, but the computers were in charge. ;p

Comments

[gabrielhorse.livejournal.com]

...sounds like when my dad asked a waitress once from pie alamode with ice cream :P

[altivo.livejournal.com]

And I'll give 30% chance that they were either out of ice cream or out of pie. ;p

[deffox]

I actually find the 30% forecast insulting. That's not a forecast, that's a statistical average. They can predict 30% from an almanac.

Looking at the Weather Channel forecast for my city is worthless. This week's forecast lists a chance of snow as: 30%, 30%, 30%, 40%, 30%, 40%. How are people supposed to make plans around the weather when the forecast is that lazy?

Right now our 30% is bright sunny day.

[altivo.livejournal.com]

I'm not at all sure what they think "30% chance of" actually means. It seems to me that if it is in fact snowing at your observation point, which it was on Sunday morning by their own admission, then the chance of snow is 100%.

A 30% chance is above average here I think. The probability of heavy cloud cover during the winter is better than 50% of the time. But in a normal winter, and even this year when we've broken records for total snowfall, actual snow falls on about one out of seven days. Measurable accumulation on the ground happens even less often.

[cabcat.livejournal.com]

Thats what most weather dudes do now, just let the computer modelling do it.
My brother had some insightful experiences at the Airport weather forecasting place.

[altivo.livejournal.com]

Well, I give them a 70% chance of stupidity.