Long day almost done

[altivo]

Thank dog. This weekend looks to be less overloaded than last was, though we still have that last hay wagon to unload.

Wind gusting here still, and supposed to continue tomorrow. Not as bad as Lake Erie, where they had "low water warnings" at the west end due to the wind piling all the water at the Niagara Falls end of the lake. This can drop the water level in the shallowest great lake so much that navigation becomes risky.

I see NASA is about to drop another huge satellite on our (or someone's) heads too. Supposedly chunks as large as 1.7 tons could hit the surface of the earth. Such foresight, such planning. Obviously the decisions here were made by MBAs, who never do learn to think farther than six months to a year ahead.

I hope it lands on some bank CEO and incinerates him. Lacking that, at least a politician.

Comments

[hrrunka]

There's a distinct nip in the air this morning, and the skies are stil cloudless. I think there's a hint of frost on the car's windscreen, too. The weather reeports say it'll all change by Monday, with some forecasting snow...

So which satellite's about to drop out of orbit now?

[altivo]

According to spaceweather.com:

ROSAT RE-ENTRY: The ROSAT X-ray observatory, launched in 1990 by NASA and managed for years by the German Aerospace Center (DLR), will return to Earth within the next two weeks. Current best estimates place the re-entry between Oct. 22nd and 24th over an unknown part of Earth. ROSAT will produce a spectacular fireball when it re-enters, but not all of the satellite will disintegrate. According to the DLR, heat-resistant fragments as massive as 1.7 tons could reach Earth's surface.

Yes, it was getting nippy here overnight as well, though I don't think we got frost. Not quite light yet so I can't be certain.

[calydor]

Now, I may be a bit pessimistic, but one point seven tons? Are they TRYING to create an extinction level event? If that hits the water near a coastal area, what kind of tidal wave are we talking about?

[altivo]

I admit I don't know. But I suspect they don't know either. And I'm confident that when they launched this thing they never thought about this eventuality. That latter issue is the real problem. It's classic MBA thinking: short term, bottom line, get results now and to hell with the future. It's the same kind of thinking that has brought us this huge western world recession and has given the Chinese and Indians such an opportunity to take over the world's economy.

What I do know is that if satellites continue to drop out of orbit completely without guidance or control, they're bound to hit a populated area eventually. That will be an unforgivable disaster in my opinion. I don't care where it is, it's simply not acceptable and should be penalized severely. The US criticized the Soviets some years ago for letting their first space station drop from orbit like that. (And ignored the fact that our own first station, "SkyLab," did the same thing even earlier.) The hypocrisy angers me even more.

[hrrunka]

Skylab came down in bits over parts of Australia. Quite a few bits were recovered. I think I even have a photo of one bit somewhere. It is part of an exhibit at the Gravity Centre in Gingin.

[treppenwolf]

I think calydor was being sarcastic.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't this standard procedure for satellite disposal? In any case, 1.7 tons at that speed isn't gonna leave a dent. It's much safer than the *real* short-sighted alternative of leaving all that junk up in space, where there's a very high chance of it ripping into functional satellites, including space stations and astronauts. Much higher than it hitting a heavily populated area, after trajectories are calculated (again, correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure NASA+ESA have ways of guiding space junk into empty regions, which I'm also sure they do all the time. They aren't physicists for nothing.)

My take on "unknown part of the Earth" is simply that, as with hurricanes, there are still too many factors for them to predict when and where ROSAT is going to fall. I'm willing to bet a hundred bucks they'll have that area narrowed down within half a week or even a week of re-entry. And that's out of my student budget.

[altivo]

NASA now has somewhat stricter policies about this, yes. But they went decades without planning for destruction or re-entry. Satellites large enough to have pieces reach the earth's surface are supposed to have steerable capabilities to allow control over where they hit. This one, and the one a couple of weeks ago, lacked that.

I still find it unforgiveable to take this sort of risk with stuff. Saying that the odds are 3500 to 1 that it will cause "no meaningful damage" are about as meaningless as any other political promise. Dropping deadly junk on people's heads is simply wrong. There is no other way to look at it.

[treppenwolf]

Well, what would you have them do? Endanger working satellites and astronauts by keeping that junk up there with them? At least on the ground, you can issue warnings and have people move out of the way. In space, you don't have that luxury.

I don't know how NASA policies were two decades back. Maybe they didn't think this scenario was going to play out again. It is unfortunate that you have to deal with past mistakes, but that's our reality. We work with what we have. In any case, they have stricter policies now, as you say. That's definitely a step forward, so I think it's a bit unfair to judge the current generation based on the flaws of the one before it.

[altivo]

I don't think it's particularly unfair. The real issue here is American politics, which has grown worse, not better. NASA behavior is driven by American politics more than by anything else. If we fail to analyze and criticize the past, the same mistakes are made again and again, and believe me, Washington is busy following exactly that track.

What you're saying is equivalent to, "Sorry, we have to smash your town and kill all of you in order to make space safer for future military and commercial uses." To hell with that. They should be investing in cleaning up their mistakes by safer means than this.

[treppenwolf]

But they're not smashing up anyone's towns. Sure, they're government-run. That doesn't automatically make them pure evil. This just happens to be one satellite from one time when steering mechanisms didn't exist - doesn't mean it will plummet into Small Town, Texas, either. I'm sure they have other ways of guiding it down to uninhabited areas. If they don't, and they fail to do that, I owe you $100.

As for "the same mistakes are made again and again", you're confusing me now. I thought you said NASA+ESA now have stricter policies regarding satellite disposal. Since incineration upon re-entry is still the cleanest existing method of doing that, the only issue here is whether heat-resistant bits will land on people's heads, right? So how will that happen now that they're trying to make sure it will not?

[altivo]

Nope, they have no way of guiding this one. Just as they had no way of guiding the last one. In fact, they are as yet unable to even predict exactly when or even approximately where it will come down.

And no, you don't owe me anything. But next time don't be so trusting. Government and corporations may not be inherently evil, but they almost never do the right and responsible thing unless they are forced to do so and watched to make sure it happens.

[hrrunka]

Not much of one, I figure. It's not coming in at meteoritic velocity, only low-earth-orbital decay velocity; enough to burn up the fragile parts, but the bits that don't burn up will only fall at terminal velocity (which does depend on the particular fragment's density, mind...). Might make a bit of a hole if it hits something solid, though.

[avon_deer]

Bank CEO? I'd drink to that.

[altivo]

Even better, a whole board of directors.

I agree with the Occupy Wall Street protests, though I don't think they'll achieve much with their present direction.